Grenada’s accomplishment at World Champs featured in 2011 Reviews
By Admin in
Sports
on Friday, December 30, 2011
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| File Photo/Kirani James |
MONTE CARLO, December 29, 2011 – Statisticians Lennart Julin of Sweden and Mirko Jalava of Finland conclude their 2011 annual review with a look back at this past season’s action in the Sprints (400m).
400m
This is an event that “always” has been a definite US property. Both statistically and in the championships it has been something of a rather evenly matched dual between the US and “all the rest of the world”. In an average modern year list the US has occupied half of the top-10 positions including the coveted No. 1 position and in the global championships they often have taken two of the three places on the podium.
But recently this balance seems to have started to swing in favour of “the rest of the world”. In the last two World championship years (2009 and 2011) the US only had two names in the top-10. The “world is catching up” feeling was especially strong in Daegu where the US entered four runners (reigning World champion LaShawn Merritt plus three) but only Merritt managed to reach the final!
Which if one goes a little deeper in the analysis wasn’t really that surprising. Because it turns out that the US “production line” of new 400m stars appears to have slowed down considerably in recent years. At first this didn’t show as they had people like Jeremy Wariner and LaShawn Merritt still dominating at the very top. But with Wariner more and more troubled by niggling injuries they were very lucky to have Merritt back from suspension at the very last moment – otherwise there would not have been any US runner at all in the Daegu final!
But of course the new situation in the 400m is not only due to US regress but also to “the rest of the world” raising their game. This has happened in two areas especially, the Caribbean and Europe, while Africa is still very much a “sleeping giant” in this event just like in the 100m. The talent pool is there – as proven by former stars like Innocent Egbunike (Nigeria), Gabriel Tiacoh (Ivory Coast), Gary Kikaya (Congo), Samson Kitur (Kenya) and Davis Kamoga (Uganda) – but in Daegu they had no finalist and only two (out of 24) in the semifinals.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the Central America area which provided no less than 50 % (i.e. 12 of 24) of the Daegu semifinalists: Three from Bahamas, two each from Grenada and Jamaica and one each from Trinidad, Cuba, Dominica, Virgin Islands and Costa Rica! The most amazing story of all is that of Grenada who with a population of less than 100,000 brought two runners all the way into the final.
And not only that: Grenada struck gold as Kirani James – two days before turning 19 – after a strong finish drive managed to pass reigning champion Merritt just in time before the finish line: 44.60 vs 44.63. James confirmed his world No. 1 position a week later at the Samsung Diamond League finals when he defeated Merritt once again and more clearly: 44.36 vs 44.67.
James has been regarded by many as the future of the event – even been called a Bolt of the 400m – ever since taking the World Youth silver with 46.96 in 2007 not yet turned 15. That contention grew stronger as he every year added another global medal: World Junior silver 2008, World Youth gold 2009 and World Junior gold 2010. Now he has the World senior gold also and is thus only missing the Olympic gold to have a complete collection. But to also achieve that James will need to improve further into the very low 44s or even high 43s.
2011 was a fairly weak year statistically with Merritt’s 44.35 from the Daegu heats (!!) being the slowest World leader since 2002 (and the second slowest since 1985). Olympic years always mean a noticeable raise in standards, especially in the US. And remember that Wariner and Merritt are still only 28 and 26 respectively next year! As for candidates to support/supplant those two in an immediate revival of the great US tradition in this event no one is standing out at the moment. Tony McQuay, the US champion in 2011 e.g. has yet to prove himself on the world stage after being eliminated in the heats in his international debut in Daegu.
As for Europe the record levels of 2010 (six at 44.71 to 45.01) were not matched at all this year (only two sub-45.25). But those two – the Borlée twins Jonathan and Kevin – competed successfully on the global stage. In the Samsung Diamond League Jonathan was second and sixth in Paris and Stockholm respectively while Kevin was third, sixth and fifth in Eugene, New York and London. In Daegu Kevin got the bronze, two places and 0.17 seconds ahead of Jonathan. The question that remains to be answered is whether they are capable of also the further improvement into the low 44’s which almost certainly will be necessary to become part of the medal fight in the London Olympics.
by:Michael Bascombe (http://mikebas.blogspot.com/2011/12/iaaf-2011-end-of-year-reviews.html)
